Indian Gold for Iranian Oil: How Far Will America Go to Defend the Dollar?

The world became a far more dangerous place last night after reports surfaced of a gold-for-oil deal between Iran and its second biggest oil exporting market, India.

According to an Israeli-based news website, New Delhi has agreed to purchase Iranian oil in gold while Tehran’s second largest export market, China, is poised to do the same.   By cutting out Wall Street and The City of London, the gold-for-oil deal allows New Delhi (and Beijing if it follows suit) to ensure a steady flow of energy while circumventing US and EU sanctions punishing financial institutions that do business with Tehran.   The biggest beneficiary of this new oil pricing model though is undoubtedly Iran. Not only does it make a laughing stock out of US-led sanctions; it has the power to severely curtail America’s death grip on the global economy.

Forget sabre rattling in the Strait of Hormuz; gold-for-oil poses the greatest threat to America’s influence on the world stage.  The lynchpin of US power isn’t its massive military. It’s the dollar’s role as global reserve currency; a position it owes to a 1973 decision by OPEC to only accept dollars for oil.  Every country which depends on oil (i.e. every industrialized nation on the planet) must keep dollar reserves both to secure their energy needs (the engine of economic growth) and defend against speculative attacks on their home currencies.   This ‘dollar hegemony’ comes with serious perks, like paying cut-rate prices to borrow money on global debt markets despite running up a 15 trillion dollar national debt.

Now, imagine the fallout if the US dollar were de-linked from oil…    Continue reading ‘Indian Gold for Iranian Oil: How Far Will America Go to Defend the Dollar?’

Want to Stop Foreign Aid Fraud? Scrap Foreign Aid.

Boy and girl outside bombed out school, Afghanistan
No School Today

Another week, another scandal concerning the misuse of British aid in Afghanistan.  This time, the self-serving bureaucrats at DFID are accused of handing more than £3.2 million in British tax payer funds to a dodgy, third party German aid agency contracted to re-settle failed Afghan asylum seekers returning from Britain.  Even more appalling; DFID continued to throw money at the German outfit after evidence of fraud had been uncovered.

This is hardly news to anyone whose seen aid agencies operating in Afghanistan.   During my time as a security advisor in the country, I saw DFID, USAID, the UN and US Military Provincial Reconstruction Teams show charts to the media detailing how much money was being spent on development projects and where.   They would roll out a graph and the press would write stories about all the good work being done.  Never once did I hear a journalist ask what all that spending had actually achieved.

Had they bothered, I’m sure a very different picture would have emerged.  Continue reading ‘Want to Stop Foreign Aid Fraud? Scrap Foreign Aid.’

Afghanistan: 10 Years On For British Forces

Afghanistan, Graveyard of Empires

In 2004, two years before British troops were deployed to Helmand, I escorted two television journalists from Kabul to Lashkar Gah by road.  Operating outside the security bubble of Kabul and military embeds was a real eye opener.   It was obvious that the locals did not support the coalition. I encountered a group of young Taliban down by the Helmand River who told me that should western troops ever attempt to set up bases in their province, there would be blood; an ominous prediction which indeed proved true.

Over the years, unilateral media excursions in Afghanistan became increasingly risky due to the deteriorating security situation.   The Taliban were regrouping effectively, targeting NATO troops and anyone believed to be associated with the coalition.  The evidence was indisputable. NATO casualties were steadily increasing year after year as were deaths of NGO personnel, the lynchpin of NATO’s hearts and minds strategy. Conditions outside Kabul became so dangerous for aid organizations that many were forced to abandon their projects or contract them out to local third parties whose progress, not to mention use of foreign aid funds, was impossible to monitor.  Sadly though, the British public was largely unaware of what was really happening in Afghanistan because our military and political leaders insisted the campaign was going swimmingly.

One of the greatest misperceptions about the Afghan conflict is that the Taliban is waging an insurgency against NATO.   There is no insurgency in Afghanistan; it’s a civil war in which NATO has taken sides.  The distinction is crucial for understanding the limits of what can be achieved.    The coalition backs the tribes of the former Northern Alliance which has been engaged in a festering 30-year civil war with the Pashtoon tribes of the southern and eastern provinces.   Against this context, it is easy to see why British, American and other NATO forces have and continue to encounter such fierce resistance in Helmand. As far as the local Pashtoon are concerned, NATO has sided with their mortal enemies. Continue reading ‘Afghanistan: 10 Years On For British Forces’

British Defence Cuts: A Battle for the Nation’s Soul

Pride

Never in my lifetime has Britain’s future been more in peril.  The government’s plan to cut roughly 19,000 full-time soldiers and replace them with part-time TA reservists is not merely an ill-conceived cost-saving exercise that will weaken our defensive capabilities. It is a declaration of war against one of the last British institutions that places the welfare of the nation above the interests of the ruling elite.

I’m not taking anything away from the TA, especially those who have and continue to serve in theatres of war. Their bravery and sacrifice are to be commended.  But the argument that combat readiness will not be compromised because more TA will be trained for frontline operations is bogus.  As someone who served 23 years in the military, I can tell you from experience that regular forces barely have time to hone all their soldering skills to perfection.    Furthermore, slashing regular troop numbers will have a devastating impact on our Special Forces. Our SF are arguably the best in the world because only the highest calibre candidates are admitted.  Shrink the recruiting pool however and the Special Forces will be faced with the stark choice; lower selection standards or be woefully undermanned.

Our national security is clearly on the line.  Indeed it has been the focal point of most criticisms of all defence cuts.   But something equally important also hangs in the balance; something which has largely been ignored by the mainstream media. Namely, the core values our armed forces embody.

When a young man or woman enlists in the military, they are not simply taking a job.  They are joining a community in which excellence, loyalty, discipline, courage, self-sacrifice, honour and the promotion of the common good are valued more highly than individual earning power.  Few if any professions in the private or public sector today impart such a sense of pride and self-worth.

Soldiers aren’t in it for the money. They have answered a higher calling. I believe this goes a long way toward explaining why so many of today’s soldiers have difficulty reintegrating into civilian life.  In the past, many rankers from working class backgrounds could return to tightly knit communities that shared many of the military’s values.  But three decades of profit-driven market reforms have decimated our working class communities. The steady manufacturing jobs that sustained them have been shipped overseas and the homes they lived in sold off in a wave of privatization.   What does a retired, working class soldier who has served on the frontlines have to return to today but a soul-sucking, poorly paid, service sector job and a rundown flat owned by a slum lord cashing in on the shortage of social housing.

Successive governments have justified the destruction of working class institutions on the grounds that what’s good for business is good for the nation.  That same argument is now being used to eviscerate our armed forces and privatize vast swaths of the military to enrich profit driven companies.  Rather than take a scalpel to bank bonuses, Prime Minister David Cameron and his cabinet of ruling elites are giving their mates in the City of London a free pass, arguing that tax hikes on banking profits will drive the financial sector abroad.  Meanwhile, they savage our defensive capabilities to pay for the crisis the bankers created.  If that weren’t obscene enough, the proposed defence cuts are also laying the groundwork for an even greater transfer of public tax funds into private pockets, for should our military find itself short of manpower to defend our sovereignty, it will have no choice but to fill the void with commercial security contractors.

I can scream from the rooftops against the wholesale gutting of our armed forces. But those best positioned to stop it are the officers tasked with carrying it out.  The odds aren’t good. In 23 years of military service I knew perhaps a dozen officers who were truly worthy of their command.   Thus far, the response from the military’s top brass has been true to form.  The Generals carp behind closed doors about their shrinking fiefdoms or leak anonymous statements to the press but to date, not a single one has resigned over defence cuts (speaking out against them after they’ve retired is too little too late).

I’m not aware of an officer from the rank of Brigadier or above who hails from a working class background, so this total impotence is not surprising.  A high-profile, public stand against defence cuts could jeopardize the top brass’s social standing within the ruling elite (not to mention the highly lucrative positions in the private security industry some are no doubt planning to retire to).

If the leaders at the top won’t save our military and defend its values, then the officers below them must act; the Colonels, half Colonels, Majors and Captains.   Many will hold their tongues, reasoning that there is nothing to be gained from a lower ranking officer falling on their sword.  But they can make a difference.

A crucial difference.

During the Falklands War, my Squadron Commander resigned over an operational plan that would have needlessly massacred the troops under his command.  He sacrificed his career so that his men could live to fight another day for this country.  Now more than never, what Britain needs are a few good officers like that Major; patriots who are willing to put the greater good before their careers.  If just one officer were to say a very public NO to defence cuts by openly resigning, others may follow that brave example and eventually the government would be forced to rethink its policy.  Those few good officers won’t receive medals or titles. But when they look in the mirror, they’ll see a genuine hero.

Aid Cuts to Pakistan Need to Go Deeper

Grandfather and child, Pakistan-Afghan border

Will western aid change their lives?

Having bitten the hand that feeds it too often, Pakistan is being punished with the loss of $800 million in US military aid.  Withholding the portion earmarked for training and equipping Pakistani forces will sting. But the biggest blow is the $300 million cash reimbursement for money Pakistan has already spent on operations along the Afghan border; a penalty some commentators claim will end up harming the broader economy because the payment goes directly into Pakistan’s treasury.

When I hear such warnings, I can’t help but wonder how much of those treasury funds end up lining the pockets of the country’s military elite, not to mention the ISI (which is largely staffed by former military)? In my view, it’s pointless separating Pakistan’s broader economy from the military because the army controls how the country’s resources are allocated.  The real question to ask therefore is not who will aid cuts impact, but why should the west continue to provide any form of aid to Pakistan?

Take Britain for example. In April, Prime Minister David Cameron outlined plans to make Islamabad the single biggest recipient of British foreign aid by increasing the amount of education aid to Pakistan to £650 million over the next four years (the total UK aid spend to Pakistan for 2009-10 was £140.4 million).   Honestly, I don’t know why Mr. Cameron doesn’t simply bypass the middleman and wire the funds directly into the offshore bank accounts of corrupt Pakistani officials because that’s where much of it will likely end up. Mr. Cameron put a national security spin on the proposed package, claiming that by tackling illiteracy in Pakistan we will be eliminating a “root cause” of Islamic extremism and terrorism.  I hate to break it to the Prime Minister, but over the past six years, I’ve met a handful of captured, hard-line Taliban from Pakistan and all of them had university educations.  It wasn’t illiteracy that had radicalized them, but western policies in South Asia and the Middle East (the same policies have radicalized British-born Pakistani militants as well).

 

It’s time to face facts: education and other hearts and minds initiatives in Pakistan have a dismal track record and to throw good money after bad at a time when Britain is closing libraries, village schools and pricing higher education beyond the reach of the average citizen is grossly irresponsible.

Some will counter that if the West doesn’t buy influence in Pakistan, China will step into the vacuum.  Beijing already has by investing billions in Pakistan. And unlike the west, it does not conduct drone strikes in the tribal areas or demand Pakistan’s military weed out Afghan Taliban, nor does it make a big deal about human rights violations.  In fact, Beijing turns a blind eye to the systematic oppression of ethnic Baluch in Baluchistan province where it is developing a treasured deep water port.

So far, China is getting a great return on its investment, gaining a strategic foothold in the Arabian Gulf and selling Pakistan military aircraft and submarines. But should Pakistan’s millions of downtrodden rise up and demand their fair cut, Beijing and every other nation that has propped up Pakistan’s corrupt and ineffective establishment could very well get their comeuppance. In the meantime, Pakistan’s military will continue to play its double game of going after anti-Islamabad militants while coddling Afghan Taliban targeting coalition forces.

So let’s cut all of  our aid to Pakistan and spend the money at home.  Islamabad can go cap in hand to some other nation.  Because until they are challenged from within, Pakistan’s corrupt elite will do as they like, aid or no aid.

Introducing The Photo Gallery

The Photo Gallery

Taking photographs in Paktika Province, Afghanistan, 2004

I’ve snapped over a thousand images in hostile environments over the past decade, some of which I’ve used as visuals in talks for my books. Many people who’ve attended those presentations have suggested afterward that I post my photographs online. Well, at long last, I’m acting on their advice and launching an online  Photo Gallery.

I’m kicking off with a selection of images that have influenced my fiction books including my debut novel, The Infidel, a modern day military thriller inspired by Rudyard Kipling’s The Man Who Would Be King, and my forthcoming novel, The Good Jihadist, an action thriller set against the duplicitous landscape of modern-day Pakistan that follows ex-SAS Sergeant Matt Logan’s hunt for a Pakistani Taliban leader.

My subject matter is as diverse as the places I’ve operated in.  This first batch of images includes an Apache helicopter, Russian attack helis, a US artillery gun, US army operating on the ground in Afghanistan, Afghan security forces training at the KMTC, children’s war art, Pakistani jihadists, riot police in Islamabad, a tank graveyard,  landscapes, villages and a winding mountain pass just to name a few.

I’m not a professional photographer.  All of my photographs were taken either on the move or during time outs whilst looking after clients in hostile environments (my camera allowed me to maintain a lower profile with media clients and not stick out as “the security man”.  It also served as an ice breaker in tense situations).

I hope you enjoy the Photo Gallery. For those of you who have read The Infidel and who plan to read The Good Jihadist when it is released this August, I hope it enhances your enjoyment of both novels.  If you like the gallery, please do check back, as I will be adding to it regularly. Next up is a selection of photographs from The Circuit, my non-fiction account of the private security industry.

A Breakup of Pakistan: Good or Bad for The West?

Pakistani Military Post
Heading for a Yugoslavia-style bust up?

The assault last night on Mehran Naval Air Base in Karachi that left at least a dozen soldiers dead and destroyed anti submarine/ marine surveillance aircraft is the strongest evidence to date that Pakistan is losing the battle against home grown militants. Prime Minister Yusuf Raza Gilani described this latest attack by the Pakistani Taliban as a “cowardly act of terror”. While I certainly don’t condone the militants’ actions, as someone with 23 years military experience, I can say without reservation that last night’s raid was hardly cowardly.  Unlike previous attacks, the Pakistani Taliban did not detonate a vehicle borne explosive device or take a few pot shots and run away.  They staged a direct ground assault on a secure military installation.  An operation of that nature takes supreme confidence, good organization and a healthy dose of fearlessness.

This is an extremely alarming development, especially given that Pakistan’s military installations have been on high alert since the assassination of Osama bin Laden in Abbottabad earlier this month. Because if the country’s security forces can’t stop insurgents from penetrating a well-fortified military base, why should anyone believe they can defend the nation’s nuclear assets against terrorists?  It is more important than ever now that we examine the goals and motives of Pakistan’s insurgent groups and how the pursuit and/or realization of those goals would impact western interests in the region. Continue reading ‘A Breakup of Pakistan: Good or Bad for The West?’

bin Laden’s Death: A Game Changer in Pakistan

The death of Osama bin Laden at the hands of US forces will no doubt bring closure to many throughout the world who’ve lost loved ones to al-Qaeda’s terror campaign. But far from signalling the end of the battle for supremacy in South Asia, bin Laden’s demise only marks the end of the beginning.

The United States reportedly launched the attack on bin Laden’s luxury, Pakistani hideaway without informing the Pakistani authorities. The failure to gain prior consent lays bare the lack of trust which has characterized relations between Islamabad and Washington since the beginning of the War on Terror.  Speculation has been rife for years that Pakistan has been playing a double game with the West – posing as a cooperative ally in the war in neighbouring Afghanistan while secretly aiding the Afghan Taliban which gave bin Laden sanctuary.  Classified US documents posted online by Wikileaks repeatedly accuse the ISI, Pakistan’s most powerful intelligence agency, of supporting the Afghan Taliban. Continue reading ‘bin Laden’s Death: A Game Changer in Pakistan’

I’m not a Libya expert, nor are you, Mr. Cameron…

I’ve never made breakfast for myself in Libya (the litmus test for claiming ‘expert’ status on a nation).  Indeed, I’ve never visited the country nor interacted with its various tribal groups; hence why I would never be so arrogant as to believe I could manipulate the outcome of a military intervention in Libya to my advantage.  If only Downing Street would admit the same.

Even before the first western missiles rained down on Gaddafi’s military infrastructure, my gut reaction to the no-fly zone operation was that it will compromise British national security. Though my heart goes out to the innocent Libyans who’ve been persecuted and oppressed by Gaddafi’s regime, I am not prepared to endorse airstrikes that could very well invite revenge attacks on British interests and open Libya to exploitation by anti-British, anti-western elements.  Continue reading ‘I’m not a Libya expert, nor are you, Mr. Cameron…’

The Real Threat to Israel from Egypt’s Revolution

Beneath western praise for the Egyptian people’s stunning victory over autocratic rule runs a deep concern about how these events will impact America’s and Britain’s most treasured ally in the region; Israel.   From Washington to Whitehall, pro-Israeli pundits have already begun sowing seeds of anxiety, warning that Egypt could tear up its peace treaty with Israel and/ or go the way of Iran and embrace clerical rule.

It’s time for a little perspective. Continue reading ‘The Real Threat to Israel from Egypt’s Revolution’

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